顶刊前沿 | American Political Science Review（美国政治科学评论）Issue 1, 2020
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《美国政治科学评论》2020年第1期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART
一
期刊简介
American Political Science Review（美国政治科学评论）是美国政治学会旗下最知名的期刊，创刊于1906年并由剑桥大学出版社出版，是政治学最早和最具权威的学术期刊。提供同行评审的文章和评论整个学科子领域的论文。2018年的影响因子为3.895，在176种政治科学类期刊中排名第7.
期刊涉及领域包括：政治学理论、美国政治、公共政策、公共行政、比较政治和国际关系等。
PART
二
期刊目录
Representative Democracy as Defensible Epistocracy
代议制民主是可辩护的知识精英政治（智者治国）
A Formal Theory of Democratic Deliberation
民主审议的一个正式理论
In the Mood for Democracy? Democratic Support as Thermostatic Opinion
民主狂热？一种关于民主支持的调和观点
Plato’s Myth of Er and the Reconfiguration of Nature
柏拉图的神话与自然的重构
What Is Spontaneous Order?
什么是自发秩序？
Self-Rule and the Problem of Peoplehood in Colonial India
殖民时期印度的自治和民族性问题
Reconceiving Immigration Politics: Walter Benjamin, Violence, and Labor
重新审视移民政治：沃尔特·本杰明，暴力与劳工
How Saudi Crackdowns Fail to Silence Online Dissent
沙特阿拉伯的镇压为何未能平息网络的异议
Can Economic Assistance Shape Combatant Support in Wartime? Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan
战争时期经济援助能够塑造战斗的支持吗？来自阿富汗的经验证据
Does Public Support for Judicial Power Depend on Who is in Political Power? Testing a Theory of Partisan Alignment in Africa
公众对司法权的支持取决于谁有政治权力吗？对非洲党派联合的理论测试
Theoretical Foundations and Empirical Evaluations of Partisan Fairness in District-Based Democracies
基于地区的民主制度中党派公平的理论基础和经验评估
Strategic Legislative Subsidies: Informational Lobbying and the Cost of Policy
战略立法补贴：信息游说和政策成本
Race and Representation in Campaign Finance
竞选资金中的种族和代表权
How Partisan Is Local Law Enforcement? Evidence from Sheriff Cooperation with Immigration Authorities
地方执法部门有多具有党派性？来自州长与移民局合作的证据
Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes
混乱的回顾：政党控制对政策结果的影响
How Empathic Concern Fuels Political Polarization
共情关注如何引发政治两极分化
Exit Strategy: Career Concerns and Revolving Doors in Congress
脱身策略：职业关切和国会的“旋转门”
Spatial Voting Meets Spatial Policy Positions: An Experimental Appraisal
空间投票遇上空间政策立场：一个实验评价
Understanding Delegation Through Machine Learning: A Method and Application to the European Union
通过机器学习理解授权：欧盟的一种方法及其应用
PART
三
精选译文
01 代议制民主是可辩护的知识精英政治（智者治国）
【题目】
Representative Democracy as Defensible Epistocracy
【作者】
DIMITRI LANDA，New York University
RYAN PEVNICK，New York University
【摘要】
智者治国的安排被广泛拒绝，因为对于哪些公民是所谓的智者存在合理的分歧，并且公民中的智者小团体可能在某些方面上存在偏见，这会削弱他们产生卓越的政治成果的能力。其结果应该是，民主政府的制度更可取，因为它们拒绝让一些公民统治其他人。我们证明了这种方法是倍加不令人满意的：虽然不能将代议制民主作为防止一部分人统治另一部分人的政府形式来辩护，但却可以将它作为智者治国的特殊形式来辩护。经过论证我们发现，即使规避了那些对智者治国规则的常规质疑，设计精妙的代议制民主依然能够通过待遇制度和筛选机制，培养出一群特别能干的人来制定公共政策。这对代议制民主的正当性和制度设计问题具有启示意义。
Epistocratic arrangements are widely rejected because there will be reasonable disagreement about which citizens count as epistemically superior and an epistemically superior subset of citizens may be biased in ways that undermine their ability to generate superior political outcomes. The upshot is supposed to be that systems of democratic government are preferable because they refuse to allow some citizens to rule over others. We show that this approach is doubly unsatisfactory: although representative democracy cannot be defended as a form of government that prevents some citizens from ruling over others, it can be defended as a special form of epistocracy. We demonstrate that well-designed representative democracies can, through treatment and selection mechanisms, bring forth an especially competent set of individuals to make public policy, even while circumventing the standard objections to epistocratic rule. This has implications for the justification of representative democracy and questions of institutional design.
02 民主审议的一个正式理论
【题目】
A Formal Theory of Democratic Deliberation
【作者】
HUN CHUNG， Waseda University
JOHN DUGGAN， University of Rochester
【摘要】
在社会选择理论不可能定理的启发下，许多民主理论家认为民主的集体形式不能为达成集体决定提供充足的民主正当性。因此，民主理论家已经将他们的注意力转移到协商民主上来，根据协商民主“当且仅当它们在平等人之中成为可以自由理性讨论的对象时，其结果才具有民主合法性”（Cohen 1997a, 73）。然而，提供一个民主审议的正式研究的学术成果寥寥无几。本文通过提供三种不同的民主审议模式的正式理论来填补这一空白:短视讨论、建设性讨论和辩论。我们发现，短视讨论受到长期结果不确定性的影响，而建设性讨论和辩论则是决定性的。最后，与两种审议模式不同，辩论是与路径无关的，并且无论最初的现状如何，都收敛于一个独特的折衷立场。
Inspired by impossibility theorems of social choice theory, many democratic theorists have argued that aggregative forms of democracy cannot lend full democratic justification for the collective decisions reached. Hence, democratic theorists have turned their attention to deliberative democracy, according to which “outcomes are democratically legitimate if and only if they could be the object of a free and reasoned agreement among equals” (Cohen 1997a, 73). However, relatively little work has been done to offer a formal theory of democratic deliberation. This article helps fill that gap by offering a formal theory of three different modes of democratic deliberation: myopic discussion, constructive discussion, and debate. We show that myopic discussion suffers from indeterminacy of long run outcomes, while constructive discussion and debate are conclusive. Finally, unlike the other two modes of deliberation, debate is path independent and converges to a unique compromise position, irrespective of the initial status quo.
03 民主狂热？一种关于民主支持的调和观点
【题目】
In the Mood for Democracy? Democratic Support as Thermostatic Opinion
【作者】
CHRISTOPHER CLAASSEN， University of Glasgow
【摘要】
公众支持长久以来被视为是民主活力和生存的关键。现有的研究认为民主也创造了它独特的需求：经过早年的社会化和日后的学习，民主体系的存在外加时间的流逝就产生了民众对于民主的广泛支持。使用新的面板评估民主情绪的方式评估了135个国家长达30年（的情况），本文发现几乎没有证据表明民主对于支持有积极的反馈作用。相反，它佐证了一个消极的调和作用：民主的增加压抑了民主的情绪，而民主的减少则使之振奋。此外，是民主的自由主义、反多数方面的增加，而不是民主的多数主义和选举方面的增加引起了公众的反对。这些新奇的结论挑战了现存的民主支持研究，但也使这项研究与有关宏观观点的文献保持一致。
Public support has long been thought crucial for the vitality and survival of democracy. Existing research has argued that democracy also creates its own demand: through early-years socialization and later-life learning, the presence of a democratic system coupled with the passage of time produces widespread public support for democracy. Using new panel measures of democratic mood varying over 135 countries and up to 30 years, this article finds little evidence for such a positive feedback effect of democracy on support. Instead, it demonstrates a negative thermostatic effect: increases in democracy depress democratic mood, while decreases cheer it. Moreover, it is increases in the liberal, countermajoritarian aspects of democracy, not the majoritarian, electoral aspects that provoke this backlash from citizens. These novel results challenge existing research on support for democracy, but also reconcile this research with the literature on macro-opinion.
04 柏拉图的神话与自然的重构
【题目】
Plato’s Myth of Er and the Reconfiguration of Nature
【作者】
TAE-YEOUN KEUM，University of Oxford and University of California, Santa Barbara
【摘要】
为什么柏拉图以一个神话般的，具有不确定的政治意义的晦涩故事来终结《理想国》，这部可以说是他最著名的政治著作？本文关注到了在理想国中两个较早叙事插曲的共享情节，提出了一个对于该神话的新奇解读。它表明柏拉图将神话以一种探索的叙述构建，类似于对负责美好城邦的教育课程的潜在的哲学王进行排序，因为他们有成功吸收哲学素养的累积效应的天性。神话中所呈现的自然模型反过来又帮助我们将自然的范畴作为一个工作概念来处理：我们能够认识到，在某些情况下，假定复杂多变的个体具有一种固定不变的、不可磨灭的本性是有益的，同时我们也承认，我们对这种对这种本性的理解是可以修改的。
Why did Plato conclude the Republic, arguably his most celebrated work of political theory, with the Myth of Er, an obscure story of indeterminate political-theoretical significance? This paper advances a novel reading of the Myth of Er that attends to the common plot that it shares with two earlier narrative interludes in the Republic. It suggests that Plato constructed the myth as an account of a search, akin to the sorting of potential philosopher-kings that underwrites the kallipolis’ educational curriculum, for natures that have successfully absorbed the cumulative effects of their philosophical upbringing. The model of nature presented in the myth, in turn, helps us approach the category of nature as a working concept: we can recognize contexts in which it is useful to assume in otherwise complex and fluid individuals a fixed, indelible nature, while granting that our sense of what that consists in is subject to revision.
05 什么是自发秩序？
【题目】
What Is Spontaneous Order?
【作者】
DANIEL LUBAN，University of Oxford
【摘要】
特别是由于弗里德里希•哈耶克的研究，“自发秩序”成为社会学理论中的重要概念。它致力于解释人类实践和制度是如何作为无数个体行动的无意识结果而出现的，并且指出了理性主义和有意识设计在社会生活中的局限性。自发秩序理论的政治含义同时解释了它引发的积极和怀疑，但是它的基本机制仍然是难以捉摸的，也没有得到充分的检验。本文梳理了该概念的内在逻辑，认为它可以被理解为几种不同的含义。一些是前瞻的（用现代功能来定义它），而另一些是保守的（用历史起源来定义它）。然而这些可能的含义没有一个证明是完全一致或令人满意的，这表明自发秩序并不能够承担已经赋予它的分析重量。
Due especially to the work of Friedrich Hayek, “spontaneous order” has become an influential concept in social theory. It seeks to explain how human practices and institutions emerge as unintended consequences of myriad individual actions, and points to the limits of rationalism and conscious design in social life. The political implications of spontaneous order theory explain both the enthusiasm and the skepticism it has elicited, but its basic mechanisms remain elusive and under-examined. This article teases out the internal logic of the concept, arguing that it can be taken to mean several different things. Some are forward-looking (defining it in terms of present-day functioning), whereas others are backward-looking (defining it in terms of historical origins). Yet none of these possibilities prove fully coherent or satisfactory, suggesting that spontaneous order cannot bear the analytical weight that has been placed on it.
06 殖民时期印度的自治和民族性问题
【题目】
Self-Rule and the Problem of Peoplehood in Colonial India
【作者】
NAZMUL S. SULTAN， University of Chicago
【摘要】
本文从理论上阐释了印度反殖民主义思想家们在定位“自治”概念（或称swaraj）[在殖民地印度有自治、独立之义]时所处理的殖民地人民的民族性问题。英国殖民统治将其合法性建立在殖民地人民落后和分裂的发展主义观念。“不发达的”殖民地民族性的论述宣称印度人民“不适合”于自治，将他们的主权无限期地悬置。自治（swaraj）的概念将随着对延期自治的拒绝而产生。然而民众成型的发展主义观念的持续存在造成了主权授权的危机。前甘地时代的自治（swaraj）理论将会在否定英国人声称的统治那一刻，面对还无法宣称的民众形象。恢复这段未被充分重视的前甘地时代的自治（swaraj）概念，并重新解释它的甘地时刻，本文提供了对于甘地的道德自律理论的新解读。通过这样做，它展示了自治（swaraj）的历史如何有助于追溯人民主权的殖民生涯。
This article theorizes the colonial problem of peoplehood that Indian anticolonial thinkers grappled with in their attempts to conceptualize self-rule, or swaraj. British colonial rule drew its legitimacy from a developmentalist conception of the colonized people as backward and disunited. The discourse of “underdeveloped” colonial peoplehood rendered the Indian people “unfit” for self-government, suspending their sovereignty to an indefinite future. The concept of swaraj would be born with the rejection of deferred colonial self-government. Yet the persistence of the developmentalist figuration of the people generated a crisis of sovereign authorization. The pre-Gandhian swaraj theorists would be faced with the not-yet claimable figure of the people at the very moment of disavowing the British claim to rule. Recovering this underappreciated pre-Gandhian history of the concept of swaraj and reinterpreting its Gandhian moment, this article offers a new reading of Gandhi's theory of moral self-rule. In so doing, it demonstrates how the history of swaraj helps trace the colonial career of popular sovereignty.
07 重新审视移民政治：沃尔特·本杰明，暴力与劳工
【题目】
Reconceiving Immigration Politics: Walter Benjamin, Violence, and Labor
【作者】
INÉS VALDEZ， Ohio State University
【摘要】
本文理论化了移民和劳工领域的暴力循环。通过沃尔特·本杰明，我将种族暴力和法律之间的关系概念化，并且注意到虽然暴力可以支持法律的权威，但是过度暴力使法律易受侵蚀。这种在权威和过度之间的紧张关系被人道主义缓解了。我在本杰明的“例外状态”和“总罢工”这两个概念中找到了打破这种循环的线索，这两个概念分别出现了二十年，并致力于理论化劳工和其他边缘群体是如何以暴力威胁法律稳定的。这一重建工作与当前美国移民执法制度的研究同时进行，它将拘留和驱逐出境的过度暴力与微不足道的人道主义调整结合了起来，最终使暴力合法化。在破坏性方面，本杰明对Immokalee工人联盟的劳工激进主义的解读提供了三种解放政治的维度：（a）拒绝的实践（参与有关移民问题的辩论），（b）历史群体的建立（对劳工法律本构的种族规制），和（c）神圣的暴力（通过揭露食品生产链中的合法暴力）。
This article theorizes the circulation of violence in the realms of immigration and labor. Through Walter Benjamin, I conceptualize the relationship between racial violence and law, and note that although violence can support the authority of law, excessive violence makes law vulnerable to decay. This tension between authority and excess is eased by humanitarianism. I find clues for disrupting this circulation in Benjamin’s twin notions of the real state of exception and the general strike, introduced two decades apart and invested in theorizing how labor and other marginalized groups threaten the stability of law supported by violence. This reconstruction proceeds alongside an examination of the contemporary US regime of immigration enforcement, which combines the excessive violence of detention and deportation with marginal humanitarian adjustments, which ultimately legitimate violence. On the disruptive side, a Benjaminian reading of labor activism by the Coalition of Immokalee Workers offers three dimensions of emancipatory politics: (a) practices of refusal (to engage on the terms of the immigration debate), (b) the establishment of historical constellations (of racial regulation of labor constitutive of law), and (c) divine violence (through exposure of lawful violence in the food production chain).
08 沙特阿拉伯的镇压为何未能平息网络的异议
【题目】
How Saudi Crackdowns Fail to Silence Online Dissent
【作者】
JENNIFER PAN， Stanford University
ALEXANDRA A. SIEGEL， Stanford University
【摘要】
沙特阿拉伯曾因在网络上发表异议而囚禁并拷打了活动分子、宗教领袖和记者。这反映了世界范围内使用物理压制来审查网络言论的趋势。在这篇文章中，我们通过运用自动化的文本分析和大众来源的群众文本评估，分析了2010到2017年3亿多条推特和细化的谷歌搜索数据，系统地考察了因网络异议而囚禁知名沙特阿拉伯人的后果。我们发现镇压阻止了被囚禁的沙特阿拉伯人继续在网络上发表异见。然而，它不能平息全部的异议。这些被囚禁的沙特阿拉伯人的推特粉丝会进行发表更多的异议，包括批评统治家族和呼吁改变政体。镇压将公众的注意力吸引到被捕的沙特人和他们的被捕的理由上来，并且沙特阿拉伯的其他知名人士没有被同行的镇压吓住，继续在网上表达异议。
Saudi Arabia has imprisoned and tortured activists, religious leaders, and journalists for voicing dissent online. This reflects a growing worldwide trend in the use of physical repression to censor online speech. In this paper, we systematically examine the consequences of imprisoning well-known Saudis for online dissent by analyzing over 300 million tweets as well as detailed Google search data from 2010 to 2017 using automated text analysis and crowd-sourced human evaluation of content. We find that repression deterred imprisoned Saudis from continuing to dissent online. However, it did not suppress dissent overall. Twitter followers of the imprisoned Saudis engaged in more online dissent, including criticizing the ruling family and calling for regime change. Repression drew public attention to arrested Saudis and their causes, and other prominent figures in Saudi Arabia were not deterred by the repression of their peers and continued to dissent online.
09 战争时期经济援助能够塑造战斗的支持吗？来自阿富汗的经验证据
【题目】
Can Economic Assistance Shape Combatant Support in Wartime? Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan
【作者】
JASON LYALL， Dartmouth College
YANG-YANG ZHOU， University of British Columbia
KOSUKE IMAI， Harvard University
【摘要】
战争期间政府、军队和医疗组织都依赖经济干预来塑造民众对战斗的态度。然而，我们却几乎没有个人水平的证据表明这些“心灵和思想”项目实际上影响着战斗的支持。我们对阿富汗Kandahar的2597名处于危险中的青年的战斗支持情况进行两组常见的干预措施——职业训练和现金调拨，通过进行因子随机对照实验来解决这一问题。我们发现训练只能略微改善经济生计，而对战斗支持却几乎没有影响。现金不能提高收入，产生了一种盛衰交替的动态，在这种动态中，亲政府情绪最初高涨，然后迅速逆转，留下了对塔利班支持的残余。在有培训的条件下，现金不能提高受益人的生计但是却能在干预后的至少8个月里增加对阿富汗政府的支持。这些发现表明了援助通过提供关于政府决心和能力的信息来影响态度，而不是通过改善经济上的生计。
Governments, militaries, and aid organizations all rely on economic interventions to shape civilian attitudes toward combatants during wartime. We have, however, little individual-level evidence that these “hearts and minds” programs actually influence combatant support. We address this problem by conducting a factorial randomized control trial of two common interventions—vocational training and cash transfers—on combatant support among 2,597 at-risk youth in Kandahar, Afghanistan. We find that training only improved economic livelihoods modestly and had little effect on combatant support. Cash failed to lift incomes, producing a boom-and-bust dynamic in which pro-government sentiment initially spiked and then quickly reversed itself, leaving a residue of increased Taliban support. Conditional on training, cash failed to improve beneficiaries’ livelihoods but did increase support for the Afghan government for at least eight months after the intervention. These findings suggest that aid affects attitudes by providing information about government resolve and competence rather than by improving economic livelihoods.
10 公众对司法权的支持取决于谁有政治权力吗？对非洲党派联合的理论测试
【题目】
Does Public Support for Judicial Power Depend on Who is in Political Power? Testing a Theory of Partisan Alignment in Africa
【作者】
BRANDON L. BARTELS，George Washington University
ERIC KRAMON，George Washington University
【摘要】
司法权是民主巩固和法治的核心。公众支持对建立和保护它有至关重要的作用。传统观点认为这种支持根植于非政治因素且不依赖于谁拥有政治权力。相反，我们认为支持可能是由工具性的党派动机驱动的，因此与行政人员的党派结盟有关。我们用来自34个非洲国家的调查证据检验了这个观点。为了提供因果证据，利用加纳自2000年以来的三次总统换届进行差异分析。在整个非洲，对司法权的支持很高，而对法院的信任却很低。然而，总统的合作党派对针对总统的横向司法权力的支持较少，对针对民众的纵向权力支持较多。本文论证了党派与行政权力联合对塑造司法权支持的重要性，并对司法行为和合法性产生了影响。
Judicial power is central to democratic consolidation and the rule of law. Public support is critical for establishing and protecting it. Conventional wisdom holds that this support is rooted in apolitical factors and not dependent on who is in political power. By contrast, we argue that support may be driven by instrumental partisan motivations and therefore linked to partisan alignment with the executive. We test the argument with survey evidence from 34 African countries. To provide causal evidence, we conduct difference-in-differences analyses leveraging Ghana’s three presidential transitions since 2000. Across Africa, support for judicial power is high, while trust in courts is lower. However, presidential co-partisans are less supportive of horizontal judicial power over the president and more supportive of vertical power over the people. The article demonstrates the importance of partisan alignment with the executive in shaping support for judicial power, with implications for judicial behavior and legitimacy.
11 基于地区的民主制度中党派公平的理论基础和经验评估
【题目】
Theoretical Foundations and Empirical Evaluations of Partisan Fairness in District-Based Democracies
【作者】
JONATHAN N. KATZ，California Institute of Technology
GARY KING，Harvard University
ELIZABETH ROSENBLATT，Harvard University
【摘要】
我们澄清了基于地区的民主选举体系下党派公平标准的理论基础，包括核心假设和定义，它们先前没有得到认可、没有被确定，或者在某些情况下甚至没有被讨论过。我们还为具有明显影响的假设提供了大量的经验证据。我们涵盖了党派对称，这一最普遍接受的公平标准，和其他视角。自始至终，我们遵循了统计推断的基本原理，这在文献中经常被忽略——分别定义利益集团的数量，这样它的测量就可以被证明是错误的，可评估的和可被改进的。这可以让我们证明在这许多新的被提议的公平测量中哪一个在统计意义上是正确的，哪一个是片面的，有局限的，或者根本不是他们所找寻的用来估算的理论量的度量。因为现实生活的行政区划和改变选区涉及复杂的政治，其参与者众多，目标相互冲突，侧重于党派公平的措施有时仍然可以为选举体系其他方面提供有用的描述。
We clarify the theoretical foundations of partisan fairness standards for district-based democratic electoral systems, including essential assumptions and definitions not previously recognized, formalized, or in some cases even discussed. We also offer extensive empirical evidence for assumptions with observable implications. We cover partisan symmetry, the most commonly accepted fairness standard, and other perspectives. Throughout, we follow a fundamental principle of statistical inference too often ignored in this literature—defining the quantity of interest separately so its measures can be proven wrong, evaluated, and improved. This enables us to prove which of the many newly proposed fairness measures are statistically appropriate and which are biased, limited, or not measures of the theoretical quantity they seek to estimate at all. Because real-world redistricting and gerrymandering involve complicated politics with numerous participants and conflicting goals, measures biased for partisan fairness sometimes still provide useful descriptions of other aspects of electoral systems.
12 战略立法补贴：信息游说和政策成本
【题目】
Strategic Legislative Subsidies: Informational Lobbying and the Cost of Policy
【作者】
CHRISTOPHER J. ELLIS，University of Oregon
THOMAS GROLL，Columbia University
【摘要】
我们分析了立法补贴内在的战略考量，并且发展了一个信息游说模型，它包含了代价高昂的政策改革。与其他信息游说模型截然不同，我们聚焦于政策制定者的和游说者的资源约束对游说活动影响。我们允许政策制定者和游说者同时收集信息，并且每个人都可以资助或资助决策。我们的分析强调了立法津贴既是被游说者战略性地选择，又是被政策制定者策略性地诱发，它取决于具体情形。这些包括哪些资源约束捆绑了政策制定者先前的信念，政策的显著性，和政策制定者和游说者在信息收集方面的专长。我们的结果强调了信息游说的五个显著动机，证明了对游说者和政策制定者双方而言，资源受限可能会带来策略优势。
We analyze the strategic considerations inherent in legislative subsidies and develop an informational lobbying model with costly policy reforms. In contrast to other models of informational lobbying, we focus on the implications of a policymaker’s and a lobby’s resource constraints for lobbying activities. We allow both a policymaker and a lobby to gather information, and each can either fund or subsidize policymaking. Our analysis highlights that legislative subsidies are both chosen strategically by lobbyists and strategically induced by policymakers, dependent on the circumstances. These involve which resource constraints bind the policymaker’s prior beliefs, the salience of policy, and the policymaker’s and lobby’s expertise in information gathering. Our results highlight five distinct motives for informational lobbying and demonstrate that for both a lobby and policymaker, there can be strategic advantages arising from being resource-constrained.
13 竞选资金中的种族和代表权
【题目】
Race and Representation in Campaign Finance
【作者】
JACOB M. GRUMBACH，University of Washington
ALEXANDER SAHN，University of California, Berkeley
【摘要】
投票率中的种族不平等是有据可查的，但是我们却对竞选捐款中的种族不平等知之甚少。利用超过两千七百万捐赠人的种族信息的新数据，我们发现了一个不具代表性的捐赠者类别。黑人和拉丁人的捐款比例远低于他们在人口、选民和选举机构中的比例。然而，我们认为少数民族候选人的存在会动员同种族捐赠者。回归、不连续和差异-无差异设计的结果表明在美国众议院选举中，少数民族候选人的存在增加了少数民族捐款的比例。我们发现白人对民主党黑人的捐款减少，黑人对拉丁裔共和党人的捐款减少，但是在整体募资竞争力上区别不大。虽然我们不能确定地排除与候选人种共变的其他机制，但是结果表明少数民族候选人的提名能够在不增加筹款成本的情况下，增加竞选资金的民族代表性。
Racial inequality in voter turnout is well-documented, but we know less about racial inequality in campaign contributions. Using new data on the racial identities of over 27 million donors, we find an unrepresentative contributor class. Black and Latino shares of contributions are smaller than their shares of the population, electorate, and elected offices. However, we argue that the presence of ethnoracial minority candidates mobilizes coethnic donors. Results from regression discontinuity and difference-indifference designs suggest that the presence of ethnoracial minority candidates increases the share of minority contributions in US House elections. We find a reduction in white contributions to black Democrats, and to black and Latino Republicans, but little difference in overall fundraising competitiveness. Although we cannot definitively rule out alternative mechanisms that covary with candidate ethnorace, the results suggest that the nomination of minority candidates can increase the ethnoracial representativeness of campaign finance without costs to fundraising.
14 地方执法部门有多具有党派性？来自州长与移民局合作的证据
【题目】
How Partisan Is Local Law Enforcement? Evidence from Sheriff Cooperation with Immigration Authorities
【作者】
DANIEL M. THOMPSON，Stanford University
【摘要】
地方执法是否因执政党而异？我所关注的一个案例提供了答案。在该案例中，地方执法部门通过选举并且获得有意义的自由裁量权：州长遵照联邦政府的要求拘留非法移民。在一个超过3200份党派州长选举和州长行为行政数据的新数据库中使用回归不连续设计，我发现民主党人和共和党人遵守的概率是一样的。这些结果有助于推动对党派在地方政策制定中的作用这一问题的进一步研究，表明了即使他们拥有广泛的权力，执法官员仍然会跨越党派界限做出相似的选择。相关证据也表明，与普通民众相比，各党州长在移民执法问题上持有更类似的观点，突出了候选人的进入和选拔在决定政党两极分化程度中的作用。
Is local law enforcement conducted differently based on the party in power? I offer an answer to this question by focusing on a case in which law enforcement is elected and has meaningful independent discretion: sheriff compliance with federal requests to detain unauthorized immigrants. Using a regression discontinuity design in a new dataset of over 3,200 partisan sheriff elections and administrative data on sheriff behavior, I find that Democrats and Republicans comply at nearly the same rate. These results contribute to ongoing research into the role that partisanship plays in local policy making, indicating that law enforcement officers make similar choices across party lines even when they have broad authority. I also present evidence that sheriffs hold more similar immigration enforcement views across party than the general public, highlighting the role of candidate entry and selection in determining the level of partisan polarization.
15 混乱的回顾：政党控制对政策结果的影响
【题目】
Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes
【作者】
ADAM M. DYNES，Brigham Young University
JOHN B. HOLBEIN，University of Virginia
【摘要】
回溯性投票对民主来说是至关重要的。但是，客观绩效指标是否被广泛地看作和回顾相关——比如经济、刑事司法体系，和学校的绩效，仅举几例——是评估政府表现的有效准则吗？也就是说，政治联盟真的有权力去影响用于回顾由选举引入的时间线的绩效指标吗？利用双重差分和断点回归法，我们发现按照选举引入的时间表（2-4年下游），美国由民主党统治的州和由共和党统治的州在经济、教育、犯罪、家庭、社会、环境和健康结果表现同样优秀。我们的结果表明投票者可能很难真正地让政府联盟负起责任，因为客观绩效指标在很大程度上不受政治联盟的直接控制。
Retrospective voting is vital for democracy. But, are the objective performance metrics widely thought to be relevant for retrospection—such as the performance of the economy, criminal justice system, and schools, to name a few—valid criteria for evaluating government performance? That is, do political coalitions actually have the power to influence the performance metrics used for retrospection on the timeline introduced by elections? Using difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity techniques, we find that US states governed by Democrats and those by Republicans perform equally well on economic, education, crime, family, social, environmental, and health outcomes on the timeline introduced by elections (2–4 years downstream). Our results suggest that voters may struggle to truly hold government coalitions accountable, as objective performance metrics appear to be largely out of the immediate control of political coalitions.
16 共情关注如何引发政治两极分化
【题目】
How Empathic Concern Fuels Political Polarization
【作者】
ELIZABETH N. SIMAS，University of Houston
SCOTT CLIFFORD，University of Houston
JUSTIN H. KIRKLAND，University of Virginia
【摘要】
在过去二十年中，政党两极分化在社会上愈演愈烈，学者们开始寻找解决党派冲突的办法。群体关系心理学将共情视作减少群体间冲突的关键机制，一些人认为共情的缺乏促进了政党两极分化。然而，共情也许并不总能兑现这条承诺。我们认为，在实践上，共情的经验是偏向于一个人的内群体的，并且事实上加剧了政治两极分化。首先，利用一个大型的全国性样本，我们证明了更高程度的倾向性的共情关注与更高程度的情感上的两极分化相联系。其次，利用实验设计，我们发现了个体高度的共情关注会在评估争议性的政治事件时表现出更强的党派偏见。综上所述，我们的结果表明，与主流观点相反，更高水平的倾向性共情事实上加剧了政党两极分化。
Over the past two decades, there has been a marked increase in partisan social polarization, leaving scholars in search of solutions to partisan conflict. The psychology of intergroup relations identifies empathy as one of the key mechanisms that reduces intergroup conflict, and some have suggested that a lack of empathy has contributed to partisan polarization. Yet, empathy may not always live up to this promise. We argue that, in practice, the experience of empathy is biased toward one’s ingroup and can actually exacerbate political polarization. First, using a large, national sample, we demonstrate that higher levels of dispositional empathic concern are associated with higher levels of affective polarization. Second, using an experimental design, we show that individuals high in empathic concern show greater partisan bias in evaluating contentious political events. Taken together, our results suggest that, contrary to popular views, higher levels of dispositional empathy actually facilitate partisan polarization.
17 脱身策略：职业关切和国会的“旋转门”
【题目】
Exit Strategy: Career Concerns and Revolving Doors in Congress
【作者】
MICHAEL E. SHEPHERD，Vanderbilt University
HYE YOUNG YOU，New York University
【摘要】
虽然关于旋转门游说者的主要研究都集中于他们在从政后的经历带来的影响，但是相对而言几乎没人关注当他们仍然在政府工作时对未来生涯的关切是否影响旋转门游说者的行为。我们认为旋转门刺激国会职员展示他们的立法技巧给游说市场，从而影响国会的政策制定。利用国会职员的全面数据，我们发现雇佣后来成为游说者的职员与国会成员立法效率的提高息息相关，尤其是在国会工作人员的最后任期内。它也与成员们在健康和商业领域法案赞助的增加有关，这是游说行业的客户最常提起的主题，也为游说公司提供了更多的机会。这些结果提供了旋转门对国会议员的退出前效应的系统性经验证据。
Although the majority of research on revolving-door lobbyists centers on the influence they exercise during their post government careers, relatively little attention is given to whether future career concerns affect the behaviors of revolving-door lobbyists while they still work in government. We argue that the revolving-door incentivizes congressional staffers to showcase their legislative skills to the lobbying market in ways that affect policymaking in Congress. Using comprehensive data on congressional staffers, we find that employing staffers who later become lobbyists is associated with higher legislative productivity for members of Congress, especially in staffers’ final terms in Congress. It also is associated with increases in a member’s bill sponsorship in the areas of health and commerce, the topics most frequently addressed by clients in the lobbying industry, as well as granting more access to lobbying firms. These results provide the systematic empirical evidence of pre-exit effects of the revolving-door among congressional staff.
18 空间投票遇上空间政策立场：一个实验评价
【题目】
Spatial Voting Meets Spatial Policy Positions: An Experimental Appraisal
【作者】
TANJA ARTIGA GONZÁ LEZ VU，University Amsterdam
GEORG D. GRANIC Erasmus，University Rotterdam & University of Antwerp
【摘要】
我们发展和验证了一个新颖的实验设计，它在空间投票理论的实验研究和从文本测量政策立场的文献之间架起了一座桥梁。我们的设计利用已建立的文本缩放技术和相应的编码方案，通过口头政策声明来传达候选人的数值化政策立场。该设计允许研究人员在纯文本的背景下调查候选人的政策立场和选民选择之间的关系。我们通过一个在线调查实验来验证我们的方法。我们的结果概括了以往文献中的发现，并表明邻近性考虑在纯粹基于文本的问题框架场景中是经验上普遍存在的。我们开发的设计是广泛的和可移植的，我们讨论了如何增加到目前的实验设计，并为未来的研究提出了一些启示和可能的路线。
We develop and validate a novel experimental design that builds a bridge between experimental research on the theory of spatial voting and the literature on measuring policy positions from text. Our design utilizes established text-scaling techniques and their corresponding coding schemes to communicate candidates’ numerical policy positions via verbal policy statements. This design allows researchers to investigate the relationship between candidates’ policy stances and voter choice in a purely text-based context. We validate our approach with an online survey experiment. Our results generalize previous findings in the literature and show that proximity considerations are empirically prevalent in purely text-based issue framing scenarios. The design we develop is broad and portable, and we discuss how it adds to current experimental designs, as well as suggest several implications and possible routes for future research.
19 通过机器学习理解授权：欧盟的一种方法及其应用
【题目】
Understanding Delegation Through Machine Learning: A Method and Application to the European Union
【作者】
L. JASON ANASTASOPOULOS，University of Georgia
ANTHONY M. BERTELLI Bocconi，University and Pennsylvania State University
【摘要】
权力授权代表政治家将权力授予一个或多个代理人，这些代理人的权力由授权法规中的条件决定。现有的关于这个问题的实证研究依赖于劳动密集型的内容分析，这最终限制了我们对近年来授权如何应对政治和体制变化的了解。我们提出了一种机器学习方法来对欧盟(EU)立法中的权力和约束进行经验评估，并证明了它能够准确地生成与原始研究中直接使用1958年至2017年颁布的所有欧盟指令和法规相同的自由裁量措施。我们通过训练我们的分类员进行有效性评估，方法是训练他们在只有10%的手工编码的随机的样本上复制一个重要的实质性发现。虽然我们的主要兴趣在于授权，但是我们的方法是可扩展的，可以用于任何人为编码已经产生的有利环境。
Delegation of powers represents a grant of authority by politicians to one or more agents whose powers are determined by the conditions in enabling statutes. Extant empirical studies of this problem have relied on labor-intensive content analysis that ultimately restricts our knowledge of how delegation has responded to politics and institutional change in recent years. We present a machine learning approach to the empirical estimation of authority and constraint in European Union (EU) legislation, and demonstrate its ability to accurately generate the same discretionary measures used in an original study directly using all EU directives and regulations enacted between 1958–2017. We assess validity by training our classifier on a random sample of only 10% of hand-coded provision sand replicating an important substantive finding. While our principal interest lies in delegation, our method is extensible to any context in which human coding has been profitably produced.
编 译：郑静
审 校：宋婷
相关阅读：
顶刊前沿 | American Journal of Political Science（美国政治科学杂志）2020.01
编辑：欧阳星
一审：陈佳林
二审：袁 丁
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